Since the historic midterm elections on November 2nd, the auto industry has been asking what comes next for tariffs and cross-border trade.

Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, but the new Congress does not begin its term until January 3. Until then, the current Congress remains responsible for the decisions ahead. Winning control is a good start, but shifting tariff decisions back to Congress will be a major undertaking.

The Constitution gives Congress authority over tariffs. Over time, however, Congress has delegated some of that authority to the President. Changing that balance would require legislation, and President Trump could veto a bill. Congress would then need a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override the veto. So the election does not mean tariff policies will change overnight.

Another deadline looms before the new Congress takes office. The current temporary funding law keeps federal agencies operating through December 11. Congress must pass full-year funding or another extension to avoid a funding lapse beginning December 12.

I worry that the funding dispute could lead to a government shutdown before the new Congress is sworn in. I can’t say that President Trump would refuse to sign another extension, but the possibility adds to the uncertainty. A shutdown would not stop every government function, but it could disrupt many federal services and activities.

Even if tariffs are reduced or eliminated, another question remains: will manufacturers pass the savings along to suppliers, repair businesses, and consumers?

There is no guarantee that the full savings will travel down the supply chain. Lower tariffs may reduce the cost of imported parts and materials, but the prices businesses pay will also depend on contracts, existing inventory, other costs, and the choices companies make about their prices. In earlier research on U.S. duty reductions, some manufacturers reported lower production costs, while expected declines in import prices did not equal the full amount of the tariff reductions.

For shops, suppliers, and manufacturers, the important questions are practical ones: which costs will change, when will they change, and who will benefit? Until there are clear decisions and those changes reach the market, businesses will have to plan around continued uncertainty.

The tariff debate is not only about policy in Washington. It is also about how decisions affect the people and businesses across the automotive supply chain—and whether any relief reaches them.

The Democrats do have an uphill battle ahead of them.

In the meantime, we can let manufacturers and price-setters know we are watching.